What recession?

I wrote about this awhile back (see The Silent Unemployment) but it seems to me that our fear of/talk of the recession has quieted, lagged, whatever the word - it's not as vehement as it was a year ago (or 6 months or what have you). I know this is partially because my personal connection to the recession is not as terrifying as it was then either but I still wonder what's going out there. Within my social circle, there are still folks unhappy with their jobs (there always will be) and still folks who are getting paid less than they should/are not being recognized (again...) but I also know people who are getting promoted and are finding new jobs.

What's the real deal folks? Where do we stand?

My short but sweet answer (okay, short but not so sweet) is that we're still knee deep in the sh** of the recession. I'm simply a bundle of cheer, I can't help it.

Boston.com ran an article earlier this week chronicling a recent PEW study that bottom lines it for us - "1 in 5 jobless Americans have been without work for a year or more". The article goes on to answer my follow up question (okay, but where is the level of unemployment settling these days) - "while more experienced Americans are less likely to lose their jobs, once unemployed they face an increasing chance of being out of work longer, the report showed". Super. The report (which clocks in around 22 pages, btw) outlines that long term unemployment (those unemployed for more than 6 months) currently accounts for 44% of our unemployment - highest rate since WW2.

Okay, so there you have it. We are in no way, in the clear. But, to be fair, we have reached the "new normal" that has come out of this Great Recession. The Atlantic ran an article in March (How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America) giving us some optimistic news about how the next decade or so will be affected by what's happened in the last 12-24 months. Sure, our unemployment rate has gotten a bit better lately (it's no longer over 10%) but the theory goes that a higher unemployment rate has settled in for the long haul. Additionally, history has shown us that the long term effects of severe unemployment and recession take awhile to register meaning we still don't know what's going to happen. Hey 2014, how you doing?

And just in case you're determined to stay positive, I've got a chart for ya! This chart from The Consumerist, shows employment declines at the same chronological point during America's last six recessions.


For those of you who are a teensy bit self flagellating, check out the entire Pew report

The Good News? That Atlantic article is 4 pages long and they take the time to outline some of the positives of the human spirit. It's not all gloomy! And I've actually gotta say that I remain positive. I kid about the crushing and overwhelming darkness of this Recession news and unemployment news but I still remain positive about the situation. There are things that need to be fixed (not the least of which is our intense class gaps) but I believe that it will get better. Call me idealistic.

The Silent Unemployment

Some of you might have noticed a bit of a lag in my posting on the economy. I'm the first to admit that I don't have the same fire around the economy/recession/unemployment as I used to - but I'm not sure it's just me. From the start of Quitsville, I've relied on my Google Reader to bring blog ideas to me and for months it has been a great source for me. Lately though, it feels a little sparse. Sure, I'm getting the same number of posts about cute animals and crafts (we all have guilty pleasures in our Readers right?) but thought provoking articles on the state of the nation's job market and workers just haven't been popping up quite as often as they used to.

Is it me?

I have a few theories on this that I'm sure you're chomping at the bit to hear.

1. We've plateaued
Sure, things aren't that much better - we're not where we were 18 months ago or 2 years ago - but they've sort of stopped getting worse. Unemployment isn't ratcheting up with quite the same frequency of 6 months ago, we're not caught in the same tailspin of financial ruin that we were before. The recession has plateaued and eventually, it doesn't become news anymore, it's just normal.

2. We're moving on
Similar to the point above - after a year of fear, apprehension, and waiting for the other shoe to drop, we've all decided to move on. The economy has improved, slightly, but it hasn't bounced back with the ferocity we were all hoping. Folks can only wait so long to see how things shake out - eventually, they have to move on with life and make decisions without the economy being the sole factor.

3. It's just me
Maybe it is just me. I'm not convinced this is the case since I'm not seeing the same prevalence of articles in my Reader and in Newsletters but it's definitely possible that it's just me.

What do you think? Are we moving forward?

December Round-Up

Alright, this is totally cheap of me but, there were dozens of great articles that I wanted to comment on during December that just didn't make it in here (as if you didn't noticed) but I still think are worthwhile. Here are a few of my favorites:

Amid high unemployment, some positions hard to fill - Boston.com
If you're currently employed in a company that is actively looking to fill some of its top positions, you'll know yourself that searching for top people is still proving difficult, despite the increased unemployment. Everyone (skilled and unskilled really) is being a bit more cautious about their moves and as he Boston.com article says "the unemployment rate for college educated workers is about half that of uneducated workers."

Recession Kills Divorce - Double X
That really says it all.

The Top Job Search Articles of 2009 - Applicant
Look! Applicant did my job for me and pulled together the Top Job Search Articles of 2009. Want to know who to follow on Twitter? Why your resume sucks? What to do with your unemployed time? Check out this handy aggregate view!

Who's Quitting?

I know you've probably all been hearing about the unemployment rates (ever on the rise it seems) but I was sent an interesting article today (Thanks JN) that highlighted the U.S. Worker Quit Rate. Not surprisingly, given all the talk we're hearing about long term unemployment, hesitancy to unfreeze the hiring process, etc., U.S. workers are increasingly less likely to quit their jobs during this economic uncertainty.

I did a quick (very quick, so please don't take my information as indicative of ALL information) search on the U.S. Quit Rate and History of such. Yes, the current rate is low, low, low but historically (through all of time), it has often been low. What is of note, is the variation since 2000 (see tiny image below).


The quit rate, which reflects the cautiousness of U.S. Workers, clearly reflects the fact that workers are being extremely cautious right now. It's not a shocking revelation but it does hit home for me. I wrote about this a bit early on in the life of Quitsville (see Payback will be a b****!) but I think it will be interesting to see where the flood gates open when the economy has stopped licking its wounds and has fully rebounded. Which companies will see their employees giving notice in groups and which companies will be able to take comfort in the way they treated their employees when the chips were down.

The very low quit rate (1.4%) also helps bring home just how lucky I have been. There is a perfectly sane reason while the quit rate is low and I know I am the exception, not the rule.

Click here to read the entire article on Reuters.com

Unemployment Might Linger

We've all heard the rumors that the economy is back on its way up. Sure, we hit 10,000 again (woo... yay, late 90s) and the market is showing signs of recovery but what a lot of folks don't seem to be seeing is the return of a robust job market.

According to a recent article that I spied on Boston.com - we've lost 7.2 million jobs as a country since December 2007. 7.2 million is quite a few jobs in case you were unaware. And even more startling is the fact that quite a few economists (from all walks of political life I might add) agree that we might not ever get those jobs back. We're currently hovering around 9.8% for unemployment with reasonable sources telling us that 10% is right around the corner.

10%. Now I know that the unemployment has big pockets in certain industries, towns, etc. but just for giggles, imagine that 10% of your friends and family are out of work. They may already be out of work so it should be easy. You may have a job but if 10% of those around you don't, things will change. Your life will be different. Imagine those 10% clamoring to do your job... better... faster... for less.

Click here to read the full article on Boston.com

Another article, in the Huffington Post, reminds us that our baseline against which we gauge growth is bottom of the barrel. Sure - we're improving. Sure - stocks are on the rise. Sure - the market is stronger than it's been in months. But let's face it - where it's been wasn't so hot. And lingering unemployment will continue to weigh us down.

Click here to read the full article in the Huffington Post

The Geography of Jobs

Just on the off chance that you were starting to feel better about the job situation/unemployment/the recession/etc... I wanted to make sure to nip that right in the bud.

Click here to view The Geography of Jobs

You'll see the gains and losses of jobs in the US starting in 2004. Watch for the huge burst of unemployment caused by Hurricane Katrina and the debilitating red circles of last November.

Good news? It's only through July 2009 and as we all know, the recession is very nearly, completely, almost, like for sure over.

Wall Street Bull Kills Bernie Madoff

No, this is not me scooping CNN. Bernie Madoff (though I hear sick) is not dead. But check out this serious piece of "recession" art. Genius.

Click here to see the article on Unemploymentality

40% of CEOs Expect to Cut Jobs

That's right - 40% of US CEOs expect to cut jobs in the next 6 months.

I don't have much else to say about that. With the economy back on the uptick (fingers crossed anyway) we'll just hope that those 40% don't actually have to cut jobs.

Click here to read the article on Reuters

Reversing Pay Cuts - Sign of the Times

I know I've said it before but the "recession is very nearly almost completely sort of over". Don't believe me? I don't blame you.

That said, CNN Money ran a piece on Friday about employers re-instating pre-economic-meltdown salaries. You heard me right. Companies are actually going back to their employees and saying 'Thanks! We're giving you some money back."

Don't get me wrong. I think it's great that some companies are stepping up and doing the right thing. Yes, in some cases employees pulled together and took pay cuts for the whole of the company, but I think in many cases, employees felt like they had no choice. While I don't know too many people who were out of work due to the economic failings of 2009, nearly everyone I know either took a pay cut or had to do without an increase - even the mediocre "cost of living" increase. I can tell you that the "cost of living" definitely did not go down because of the economy. Nearly everyone I know was, in effect, taking a pay cut without it even being official.

Again, I think it's great that some companies are stepping up and giving back to their employees but it would be even better to see companies really manning up on this. Give those employees a raise, give them back the salary they lost during that year of cutbacks. Hell, buy them a few beers at the very least. And to all of you companies who used the economy as an excuse (because I know you're out there) - Shame on you! We all know you're not giving anything back, you're holding on to every extra percent with your grubby little paws.

On a personal note, money isn't everything. I took a pay cut for the job I'm in now but clearly, pay wasn't my #1 motivating factor (if you recall the whole quitting without a new job situation). And I don't think this is really about the money either. 2009 is not the 60s, I get it. We're not staying with one company our whole lives or devoting ourselves to the corporate overlord or developing pension plans... but that doesn't mean that a familial atmosphere doesn't lend itself to a more productive workplace. Personally speaking, I am far more productive when I am happy and I feel valued and respected. You can't put a dollar sign on that.

Read the entire article on CNN Money

Wrap-Up of Almost News

Hello dear readers. I apologize for the lack of posts in the past few days. You already know that weekends are hard for me - in terms of posting. I've been running around like a crazy person the past few days and honestly, nothing has really tickled my fancy enough to comment.

In lieu of a full on post, I've decided to give you a quick wrap-up of some of the things I've read. Articles that warrant one or two sentences of comment but not an entire post, as it were.

1. California is the most jobless it's been in 70 years. This seems shocking. 70 years?! Is this really a reflection of the recession in California or are more people moving to the big C-A to be unemployed in the sun? I'm not saying that's a bad plan, I'm just asking is all.
Click here to read the entire article in The New York Times

2. Maryland is the country's top earning state (over $70k btw). Really? Maryland? And yes, I know, Maryland is more expensive to live in than say, oh Mississippi (quoted in the piece) but let's be frank. Is it more expensive than oh, California (see above), New York? Massachusetts? I'm guessing no but maybe I'm wrong.
Click here to read the entire article on CNNMoney

3. Turns out California isn't the only state that's hurting. The United States lost fewer jobs in August than we did in July (by about 60k) but 27 states (+ DC) saw their unemployment rates rise.
Read the entire article on USA Today

The Recession is Over!

Alright, maybe that is a more strongly worded statement than the "recession is very likely over" comment we received earlier this week but I'm pretty sure that my title is closer to what we were actually supposed to think. Contrary to whatever the Federal Reserve Chairman might think, many people are not lining up on this topic. According to a Slate piece run today (by my much beloved Emily Bazelon), a lot of people just don't think the recession is very likely over.

To be fair, Bernanke didn't stop at that comment. He did admit that the economy will still feel very weak for awhile and that economic growth in 2010 will only be "moderate."

Don't put your party hats away just yet. It may not be a bacchanale inducing victory but I think we all admit we have to start somewhere.

For me, the biggest, loudest, most obvious sign of the recession was my job search. I admit, I am not currently looking (I've got to give the new position a few weeks at least!) and as such, I feel pretty insulated from the whole economic downturn. All of my friends who lost jobs in the last year are employed again (as far as I know) and I'm not trying to sell my house, find a new job, etc. etc.

What do you all think? Is the recession waning?

Click here to read the piece on Slate

Click here to read the MarketWatch coverage of Bernanke's speech

Workplace Suicides Up

This is a pretty morbid post but I thought this was fascinating. In 2008, workplace suicides was the highest it has been since tracking started in 1992 but deaths at work are down.

What does that mean!?

Read the entire article on Boston.com

I'm also sort of disappointed. I would like more information on this report. Who? Where? Etc.

I'm sorry that folks are this despondent at their jobs.

Job Growth?

Yahoo (Real Estate) had an article today on the counties with the best job growth (but over the last 8 years rather than 18 months). I'm not saying they're wrong but the list brings up a number of questions. What was their growth like most recently? How many people do these counties have? Etc. Etc.

As the news spreads that I've given my notice, stories keep popping up of OTHER people finding work as well. Sure, it's probably harder to find something but if you're a quality person, you will land on your feet I guess. Companies can't remain in a holding pattern forever. Things will start to grow again (if they haven't already).

Click here to read the entire article on Yahoo

President Obama thinking about unemployment

It's good to know it's not just me thinking about this.

Click here to read the brief post on Mother Nature Network

Unemployment Rates

We're all well aware that the unemployment rate is on the raise. But today, as I was going through my many RSS Feeds, I came across an article on GOOD rating metropolitan areas according to their unemployment rate. As common sense would tell us, the unemployment rate is not the same nationwide.

Click here to see how your city rates

In the interest of remaining as anonymous as possible, I will tell you only that I live in a metropolitan area that falls in the lowest rates of unemployment column. Things could be a lot worse.

Less Failure = Progress?

Word has it that the last quarter of the year saw less of a decline in our economy. A decline is still a decline but I see what they're saying. We have to slow declining before we stop declining before we start improving.

I will do my best to see the glass as half full.

Click here to read the entire article on Slate.com

Fewer Folks without Jobs?

I'm not sure I believe that there are actually fewer people without jobs but apparently, "jobless claims are on the decrease" in July. This doesn't adequately speak to overall unemployment (or underemployment) rates but it's good to know that at least the numbers are dropping.

Of course, we need to remember that after a certain number of months on unemployment, one stops being counted. Similarly, if you quit (and do not get laid off or fired), you don't get to file for unemployment.

That's a scary thought.

Click here to read the article on Boston.com

Experts expect the unemployment rates to keep rising over the next year but maybe we can hope that it's beginning to taper off?

Payback followup

Just came across this article on HR Online about employees taking things into their own hands. Looks like payback is coming sooner for some folks.

Just another indication that treating your employees/employers decently is really the way to go.

Click here to read the entire article

Payback will be a b****!

I'm sure you are all too aware of how some employers (and vendors and stores and everyone!) have been using the recession as an excuse to underpay, underemploy, and generally mistreat their employees. I am by no means saying this is the norm (or even true of my current employer) but sadly, it's not that unusual either.

While some companies actually need to be "thrifty" right now in order to survive this downturn, others are just taking advantage of a chance to save themselves a few bucks. We all know the bottom line is what it is but in the long run, investing in your people is smart. Treating your employees with honesty and care gives you a much higher rate of retention - if you treat them well while you can, they may better understand a pay cut or similar when you need it.

This is probably my favorite statistic from the article: Your youngest employees, who bring new ideas and skills to the workplace, are knocking on your competitor's door. Of the employees surveyed, 71% between the ages of 18 and 29 are likely to look for new jobs once the upturn begins. Ahem!

The good news is that the downturn really can't last forever the way it is now. Eventually, things will tick back up or they will change. But people won't forget how you treated them when everyone was down on their luck.

Click here to read the post on About.com